The Mega Evolutions of Pokemon Z-A, and Their Potential in Pokemon Go

Mega Evolution. Of all of the regional gimmicks that The Pokemon Company has conceived, Mega Evolution is generally the most beloved by far. Recently, they've started embracing this atrophied system, and they're doing it in a big way, as Legends Z-A is focused heavily on them. So far, we've had a total of 9 different Mega Evolutions officially revealed in trailers, and we currently have no idea how many more are still coming, or what to expect from them. We especially have no idea what they will end up being in Pokemon Go, where stats translate pretty differently when compared to the main series. Are they going to be offensively oriented? Defensive? Speedy? It's honestly hard to say what they'll be in the main series, and how they'll end up performing in Pokemon Go... or is it?

While it's true that there's a fair bit that we don't know about our upcoming Mega Evolutions, there's a fair bit that we do know about Mega Evolution in general. To that end, here is some information that thus far has proven itself to be universal among our existing Mega Evolved Pokemon:

• When a Pokemon Mega Evolves in the main series, it will gain +100 points to its total Base Stats, divided in any number of ways.
• It is also possible for a Pokemon's existing stats to shuffle around, though the base stat total will still be 100 points higher than the Pokemon's base forme.
• In Pokemon Go, if a Pokemon surpasses the 4000cp mark at Lv.40, it will be hit with the dreaded 9% stat tax, losing that amount from all of its stats. This includes Mega Evolutions.
• A Pokemon can potentially change typing when Mega Evolving. However, no currently announced new Mega Evolutions are confirmed to undergo type-changes.

Using these rules and the base stats of all of the new Mega Evolution Pokemon, as well as their available attacks in Pokemon Go, we actually can theorycraft where they may land in the coming years as they filter into Pokemon Go. However, we're following a few rules here:

• We're primarily focusing on raising a Mega Evolution's Attack stat in Pokemon Go, which generally means that we maximized its Attack or Special Attack stat in the main series when making calculations, with a focus on whichever of the two is higher, as balancing Attack and Special Attack in the main series yields sub-optimal results in Pokemon Go.
• We're not going to try calculating what would happen if a Pokemon's base stats end up shuffled when Mega Evolving, as that opens up a MASSIVE can of worms, and it's extremely hard to be realistic when re-building a Pokemon from the ground-up.
• We're generally just going to just accept the CP tax. While it's true that moving some stats around MAY avoid the tax and result in a higher total stat product, our goal is to keep things simple and straight-forward... mostly.
• We're exclusively looking at the raid meta with this, as that's the only place that Mega Evolutions are really used at the moment... which is why Attack is our biggest goal.

So with all of that in mind, let's take a look at the current list of upcoming Mega Evolutions, and see where they COULD land in the raid meta in the future.

Mega Victreebel

Throwing all 100 new stat-points into Attack can result in a TITANIC stat-increase for good, old Victreebel. However, there’s a problem: adding 100 stat points in most configurations will hit our favorite poison-vomiting pitcher plant with the 9% nerf for breaking 4,000 CP. This means that it’s going to fall short of where it SHOULD be, though a potential 346 Attack is DEFINITELY an amazing number. The problem is that this will also reduce its bulk, making it pretty glassy if it gets to such a tremendous number. But how does that translate into actual performance? Well, let’s take a look at what it can do while trying to poison the opposition first:

If everything goes flawlessly for Mega Victreebel, then it could become basically the top Poison Type… but not by enough to make it super valuable Heck, if this stat-line proves true, then it will be even glassier than Mega Beedrill, and oh boy is that saying something! But what about its Grass Type performance?

….Mega Sceptile exists.

Actual Predictions

While it’s fun to think that Mega Victreebel could wield such an absurdly high Attack stat in Pokemon Go, it seems pretty unlikely. It seems far more likely that a lot of its raw power will indeed go into Special Attack, but at the same time it will likely see improvements to its Defenses to match its bulkier appearance and/or Speed to keep it from being so easily KOed, which are both a bit sub-optimal stats for a Mega Evolution to receive in Pokemon Go. In the end, we don’t see Mega Victreebel as an extremely likely new meta candidate in Go. It might make a nice backup option (or rather it would if Poison wasn’t so needlessly hated by this game), but on the whole it’s very likely to be extremely unimpressive and underwhelming.

Mega Dragonite

Yes, you read that right. If they decide to put all 100 stat points from Mega Evolution into Attack in the main series, then Mega Dragonite could top a TOWERING 400 Attack in Go, and that’s post-9% nerf. Speaking of; while it’s definitely possible for Mega Victreebel to avoid the nerf if its stat increases are defensively-oriented, Mega Dragonite basically can’t get around it due to its relatively high base stats that bring it up to 3792cp at Lv.40. So what exactly can we expect from Mega Dragonite if it gets everything in the world that it wants from the Mega boost in terms of PoGo performance?

Yup; IN THEORY this thing could rival the monster that is Mega Rayquaza in terms of sheer DPS. However, the 9% tax hits its defenses fairly hard in this theoretical case, making Mega Rayquaza the more reliable option for a very small DPS cost.

So what about its Flying performance? Suffice to say that Dragon Ascent exists.

Actual Predictions

Considering its large wings and overall design changes, it seems very likely that Mega Dragonite will see at least some degree of offensive performance increase, but the fact that it’s leaning more into the Flying side of its design makes it SEEM more likely that it’s going to see its Speed increase as at least somewhat of a focus, which is a stat that does not translate well into Pokemon Go. We may also see it get a heavy Special Attack boost to mirror Mega Salamence’s Attack boosts, which would result in good, but less optimal stat-increases on the Go side. In the end, it’s extremely likely that Mega Dragonite is going to become another silver-medal Mega Dragon like Mega Garchomp or Mega Salamence in Pokemon Go: definitely good, but also VERY MUCH outclassed by the Dragon Monarch that is Mega Rayquaza.

Mega Chesnaught

Here’s a legitimately interesting one; Chesnaught is seen as one of the “little brothers” among Grass starters thanks to its more defensive build; a build that also isn’t THAT defensive on the whole. However, the truth is that its Attack is only about 10% lower than Sceptile, which Mega Evolves into the best Grass Type Mega in the game. So with 100 stat points to play with in the main series, Mega Chesnaught could SERIOUSLY see a huge power increase in Go.

A theoretical Mega Chesnaught with a maximum Attack boost COULD take the top spot, and it could either rival or outright usurp Mega Sceptile. However, it will need a pretty heavy Attack boost in the Main Series in order to realistically rival Mega Sceptile.

And how about as a Fighting Type? Mega Lucario exists....

Actual Predictions

Okay, here’s the problem: Mega Chesnaught needs to see the majority of its Mega stat-boost drop into Attack in the main series if it wants to have a shot at usurping the Grass meta. And while that isn’t unheard of among our existing Mega Evolutions, it MIGHT be a bit of an ask in this case. This is partly due to the fact that Mega Chesnaught seems to also gain a fair bit of armor when Mega Evolving, and official media talks up its defensive performance, which seems to denote that Attack won’t be the main priority here. Still, it also seems to wield some weapons as part of its design as well based on the trailer, so it’s a strong bet that we’ll realistically see a defensive boost first and foremost, with some Attack to back it up. In Go, it seems pretty likely that Mega Chesnaught will sit somewhere between Mega Sceptile and Mega Venusaur, and may be a solid silver medal.

Mega Delphox

Okay, this is another really interesting one. Delphox is another “little cousin” among starters, but it’s actually got more raw Attack than Charizard, and isn’t very behind Blaziken on that front either.

As of right now, Mega Delphox has the potential to rule the Mega Fire meta, with a VERY high potential Attack stat combined with the classic Fire Type starter moveset. It really only needs about 60-70 points in Special Attack to secure itself a place as one of the top Fire Type mega Evolutions in Pokemon Go.

But how about its Psychic performance? Well… It’s generally best to not try to compete with the Mega Mewtwo duo. It could be decent if it drops before Mega Mewtwo X and Mega Mewtwo Y, as our current Psychic Type Mega Evolutions are A BIT underwhelming, but the odds are a little stacked against it.

Actual Predictions

Delphox actually stands as one of the more likely Pokemon on our current list to hit the big-time in Pokemon Go. Its design seems to look a bit more like it's pushing towards the offensive side, leaning heavier into the spellcaster look. So it’s a fairly safe prediction that it will see a sizable increase in Special Attack, and probably a fair bit of Speed as well, which adds at least SOME Attack in Pokemon Go. However, it COULD also focus a bit on Special Defense or lean more heavily into Speed, so its realistic placement could fall short of its potential.

Mega Greninja

Okay, HERE’S one of the potential big ones. We’ve long talked up the potential power of Ash Greninja for a long time, and this one could potentially outclass it, and even the monster that is Primal Kyogre.

If Gamefreak goes all-in on Special Attack, then Mega Greninja could not only rule the Water meta, it could become one of the highest DPS things in the game, even beating out Primal Kyogre. But is that where the story ends? Pretty much, at least for now. It DEFINITELY has the potential to rule the Dark meta as well if the stats pan out, but it's also going to need access to Brutal Swing or some other new/broken Dark Type move.

More important than that, this COULD scratch the itch that the lack of Ash Greninja has left for many of us, since The Pokemon Company as a whole seems to have largely moved on from Ash entirely. Honestly, the two formes seem to follow a similar design philosophy... minus the fact that Mega Greninja seems to be perpetually upside-down... so this COULD be our consolation prize on that front.

Actual Predictions

Like Ash Greninja, we can likely expect a strong Special Attack boost in the main series, with a Speed boost tacked on as well to add a bit of extra attack in Go. When all is said and done, this is one of the new Mega Evolutions with the strongest potential performance. It likely won’t quite surpass Primal Kyogre, but it’s still possible! That said, it's worth noting that Ash Greninja JUST BARELY misses the 4000cp mark at Lv.40, so it skirts the 9% tax. However, Mega Greninja will have 10 more base stat points in the main series if the current Mega Evolution formula stays true, so it will almost definitely suffer the infamous tax, which MAY make it a bit weaker than Ash Greninja depending on how it's handled. Also, we're predicting that its Shiny forme is going to look great.

Mega Malamar

Mega Malamar is.. An odd case. This thing wants to fight for dominance in two VERY competitive metas, and it lacks all of the tools needed to really do so. As it sits, Malamar has low Attack and a terrible moveset that is mediocre on the Psychic side, and entirely lacking on the Dark side. Heck, this thing literally stands no real chance on the Psychic side due to just what it’s up against, and doesn’t even have a real shot on the Dark side theoretically without some sort of a signature move…. And Topsy Turvey, its only signature move in the Main Series, feels like a Fast move at best, which is unlikely to make a huge difference. Heck, it can’t even learn Brutal Swing in the main series.

Honestly, we’re not even going to bother posting a screenshot from the DPS/TDO Spreadsheet. It just doesn’t have enough of a showing to be worthwhile.

Actual Predictions

So here’s the full story; Mega Malamar could see some potential. Maybe. If Pokemon Legends Z-A gives Malamar a better moveset (in particular Brutal Swing) and its Mega boost focuses almost exclusively on Attack, then it could be a solid Dark Type Mega option. However, Malamar is more Attack-weighted in the main series, and its new design seems to look like it may lean more into Special Attack, meaning it might try to act as a mixed attacker to sort of thread that needle. And, sadly, balancing Attack and Special Attack in the main series doesn’t translate very well in Go, so that’s quite the uphill battle.

While we said that we wouldn’t really touch on it at the start of this article, it’s worth mentioning that, if our special attacker predictions are correct, Mega Malamar MAY shift its Attack around in order to enable a higher total Special Attack, which could shift its future position quite a bit if combined with a moveset update. However, that’s purely speculation. As it sits, Mega Malamar appears to be one of the biggest long-shots on this list.

Mega Hawlucha

THIS is one that a lot of players have been wondering about. Flying Press was one of the early “broken” moves, so Mega Hawlucha should see some major power despite the fact that basic Hawlucha’s Attack stat is so low, right?

Yeah, this is going to be an up-hill battle. Competing with Mega Lucario is NOT easy, as it has an Attack stat near the top of what Mega Hawlucha could possibly muster, a broken Charged Move of its own, and a broken Fast Move. Meanwhile, Mega Hawlucha has a low base Attack stat to contend with in its base forme and a poor Fast Move to deal with, meaning it’s gunning for that silver medal at absolute best.

Actual Predictions

Based on how it looks and its entire theme, Mega Hawlucha will likely see a boost in its Attack first and foremost, though it’s still got a major up-hill battle if it wants to compete in Pokemon Go. It MIGHT be able to dethrone Mega Blaziken for the silver medal, especially if it gets a Fast Move update. But for the most part it’s going to need to fight HARD to be worth using to any real degree.

Mega Raichu X and Mega Raichu Y

Okay, we broke our rules a bit with this one. Just adding +100 Special Attack to Raichu brought it pretty close to the 4000 cp nerf-point, so we dropped a little bit of it and put it on Defense, giving it a LITTLE BIT more Attack in Go thanks to just barely evading the tax. The difference isn't HUGE, as sticking with our stated methodology will result in 346 attack and lower bulk, but this is Raichu we're talking about; this poor thing needs all of the help that it can get. Worth noting; we’re just going to treat both variants as one Mega Evolution, as they’re both coming from the same base.

Mega Raichu definitely has potential, mainly due to the fact that we only have one good Electric Type Mega Evolution right now, and it’s not exactly the best. If either of Mega Raichu’s formes are heavily offensive, then it could very easily surpass Mega Manectric and sit near the top of the overall Elecrtic meta (and yes, that list IS missing Regieleki).

Actual Predictions

We are literally looking at something of kin to a Mega Charizard X and Y case here; both APPEAR to be pretty offensively-oriented in terms of design, and we very well end up with one that leans heavily into Special Attack, and one that is more balanced. However, we also may see one or both lean more heavily into Speed, as it’s Raichu’s strongest base stat… and that’s not very rewarded in Pokemon Go.

When all is said and done, we may see one Mega Raichu that will at least rival Mega Manectric, and one that’s pretty mediocre on the whole. Of course the REAL problem here is that these two are a part of paid DLC announced before the game even releases…..

Mega Ditto

OH GOD WHY? WHY WOULD YOU DO THIS, GAMEFREAK? WHY WOULD YOU ALLOW DITTO TO DO THIS?

Actual Predicitons

We’re all doomed.