The myth of hundreds of TMs on mew
Almost every post about mew moves ends with the assertion that it may take hundreds of TMs to get a specific moveset. So how likely is it to spend a hundred TMs on mew?
On average it will cost 14 fTMs and 24 cTMs to get a specific moveset.
The probability to spend a hundred or more fTMs is 1 in 1650 or 0.06%.
The probability to spend a hundred or more cTMs is 1 in 70 or 1.4%.
So it's definitely possible that it will cost hundreds of TMs, just very unlikely.
Answers
This is an observation effect. The people who have done well with randomness don't post here saying "Hey, the last four Machamps that I CTMd all got Dynamic Punch on the first try." The more unusual or rare the sequence, the more likely someone is to post it here.
Random numbers aren't fair, they are random. It's good to see that some of the randomness is being removed from the quests - that should make the work pay off. Remember back before there were TMs, you'd walk a Magikarp, and catch all the ones you could find, then you finally got your 400 candy and evolved one to get a Gyarados with Bite and Twister. Oh well, start over. And of course, your buddy got Dragon Tail and Hydro Pump. That's random.
Hah so i can post this part of Machamps: Have 5 and 4 Tmed to DP in one CTM each. 3 from HS and one from CC. Have always luck with CTM and never with FTM- any mon i want always have unwanted fast attack and almost always good charge( like LF Sceptiles, Blizz walreins (never had EQ on them) Because that, im sitting on 23 CTMs and just 2 FTMs
> The probability to spend a hundred or more cTMs is 1 in 70 or 1.4%.
Isn't mew's can learn 25 charge moves? Then it's 1.6 %
Anyway probability to spend more than 10 tms on common mon is the same, but some people reported more than 20 without desired move. And probability to spend more than 20 is miniscule 0.025 %
You're right, then not getting desired move on common mon is 0.1 % after 10 tries and 0.000095 % after 20.
Anyway to get the same probability of 0.5 to get desired move one need to use 17 tms vs only 1 for common mons, not hundreds but still a big waste.
Also all our calculations postulates that move is chosen by proper random generator, if not, it could significantly affect outcome.
Or in another words if you ever used 6 or more tms to get desired move, it's equal to 100+ on mew.
It's nice to see someone actually do the math instead of just saying "you'll never get the move you want because there are so many."
And frankly, I have almost 30 FTMs, and when I get my Mew, I'll decide the right role for it, and then FTM away to match the fast attack with the Charged attack. Might use a CTM too, especially if I get Low Sweep. Would prefer to get Psyshock, and a fast move that hits Machamp hard, or something to beat on Psychics, so I can use Mew's natural resistances. But there's no Psychic or Flying fast moves on the list, and no Fairy fast moves at all, ....
Nice work, looking at the math.
I knew there was a decent chance to get a certain move set so I jumped into it, when I got Mew some days ago, with 50 of each TM.
After 12 fTM and 14 cTM I had my desired combination (Shadow claw / Dark pulse).
Of course, you can be unlucky with the numbers, but most people are not, and certainly not all the time. People only much better remember that excruciating long streak of bad luck.
Not that any move set you may get will give you a stellar Mew, there will always be better alternatives. But it is a fun twist.
