If you're like me and tend to ignore cost for 'mons that are particularly good or 'mons that you really like, I would raise 1 or 3, 4 if you value shiny Moltres particularly. 1 because it's the highest overall IV value despite the 14 attack (and being the best in the event of it becoming good in PVP), and 3 because of it being the highest 15 atk. I personally would rather have a sky-attack which can have overheat added as a second move.
On a more neutral view, 2 is probably the best. The difference in IVs is going to be highly negligible short of a breakpoint miss (which is fairly unlikely at lv40), and the fact that it's lucky will allow you to take 50% of your investment and save it for another 'mon.