Exactly this, it has been more than 60 days since ex raids were announced. More even since Mewtwo was released in Japan. Still not a single ex raid has ocurred anywhere near my area. I have the feeling I will never get a Mewtwo, the hype is completely lost around here. Most people has even stop playing because we have got Suicune too with the beast rotation. So worst beast + no ex raids + starting cold weather + raid fatigue + no communication from Niantic + nothing else to do in the game....There is a huge list of factors and we are tired of waiting.
And the best of all is that I see so many people hyped about gen3 for halloween. Let me say that we are only getting 5 useless mon and that they are gonna make us wait until december for the hole gen3 release at least. Always expect the worst from Niantic, they don't learn from their mistakes at all, ex raids are on pair with city vs rural imbalance. I have seen people that already has 4 or more Mewtwo while 99% of the player base don't even know that getting an ex raid pass is not something they can control, that they are being milked by Niantic just to get as many $ as they can and they don't care at all about their players in any other way.
It depends on how frequent these Mewtwo raids become and what kind of player you are. I'm not one to run all over town doing raids, I generally raid at the 5 or so (non-sponsored) gyms during the week where I work. For me to get a Mewtwo, it would take one of those few gyms to have a Mewtwo raid, the raid would have to be at a time I'd be able to attend, enough people would need to show up to complete the raid, AND I'd have to catch the mewtwo. Each of those steps have a pretty low chance of happening, so I'd probably power up anything I did manage to catch.