Research Rewards bad IV chance exceeding 89%
I've recorded all of my research breakthrough rewards and here is the results:
* Moltres - All below 80%
* Zapdos - 2 Below 80%, 1 86 with 11 ATK ivs, 1 84 with 12 atk ivs
* Articuno - Actually lucked out of this one and got an 84 and a 95
* Snorlax - All below 80%
* Raikou - 2 so far, all below 80%, 80% has only 11 attack
Why is the rate for bad ivs so ridiculously high? This is becoming a joke. The chance of getting anything below 80% is above 89% and this makes me less willing to gamble in a short 4 week window. In fact, I think out of all the times i saw a wonder is around 4 times, with 2 times getting 11 or 12 attack.
Can't they just raise the minimum ivs to 12/12/12 or 13/13/13? Not many people want to raise lv15 pokemon, that's for sure, i've never raised any research breakthrough mon save for the birds because i do not have them at that time.
Answers
Less willing to gamble? What are you gambling exactly, the effort to do one task per day?
You've had some pretty bad luck but that's just you, even collecting them for a few months the sample size is too small to make any assumptions from. Plenty of people have gotten some amazing breakthrough rewards. I just lucked into a 96% Raikou two days ago that will look pretty in my storage because it's never going to get powered up.
Raising the IV floor would devalue good IVs and make them less exciting. It would be too easy to score if the floor was 12/12/12 and hundos would be massively more common.
The IV floor is 10/10/10 for research rewards, same as egg hatches and raid catches. Assuming you've collected ~20 research breakthroughs since research was introduced, what you've experienced is slightly lower than average RNG luck. And even if you're trying to suggest otherwise, what you're presenting is WAY too small of a sample size to suggest that the odds of getting good IVs are lower for research breakthroughs compared to raids/egg hatches.
Plus, Niantic is essentially giving you a free legendary Pokemon (sans Snorlax) every week for playing their game. You mention "gambling," and yet there's absolutely no gamble or risk taken with claiming research rewards. Research breakthroughs aren't becoming a joke, but your complaints certainly are.
Haven't had a day go by without getting my stamp yet!
Moltres -> Best = 97.8 % (14 HP)
Zapdos -> Best - 95.6% (14 Def and HP)
Articuno -> Best = 86.7%
Snorlax -> Best = 91.1%
Raikou -> best (so far) is 88.9% (13 atk)
Some part of me wants to not get a good Raikou, so that I have to wait for its raid day and then don't power another mon up from lvl 15, like I did with Moltres and Zappy.
I didn't do moltres (wasn't back in the game yet).
Did zapdos: two 96%, a 91%, and a 84%.
Articuno: three 84%, and an 82%
Snorlax: didn't bother checking any of them, but all "amazing" (82% or higher) and none with a 15 stat (at best 14/13/13).
Raikou: so far a 91% with 12 attack, and something <=80%.
It's pure RNG. My zapdos luck was insanely good. Meanwhile when looking at raids:
18 kyogre with a single 96% (on one of the last raids), two 91%, one 89%, two 87% and 12 in the gutter.
3 Mewtwo with 69 / 80 / 84 (then managed a lucky trade for 91% 15 attack).
9 ho-oh with a single 91%.
3 latias with a single 89%.
6 Articuno, the first 3 were all 91% with 15 attack.
11 zapdos, one with 98%, rest pretty poor.
4 lugia with one 89%
18 regice with a single 96%, and a couple 91%
4 registeel with nothing notable
That's 76 legendary raids, and all I've seen is a 98% zapdos and two 96%s. Which is pretty close to the expected value (hundred is one in 216, 98 is 3/216, 4 if you include the hundred, 96 is 6/216, 10 if you include 98/100). In 76 legendary raids you'd expect one 98%+ and 3-4 96%+. I'm on the lower end of the expected value, but still pretty close.
Statistically, you expect exactly 5 of 8 research breakthroughs, or hatches, or rerolled lucky pokemon, to be above 80%, and 3/8 to be below 80%. Work out your probability distribution by calculating
w = count above 80%
b = count at 80% or less
t = total, must be w+b
Odds of your result = (3/8)^b * (5/8)^w * t! / (b! * w!)
But that doesn't give you much information, because it's just the chance you get exactly that combination of wonders and non-wonders. What you really need is the odds of getting that bad or worse, and I can't type an integral sign.
I thought my research breakthrough pokemon weren't to hot either, but last night I got a 96% Raikou (14/15/14 ads), which is pretty cool since I don't have any from raids, and my other one was an 82% (10/12/15 ads). Psyched, but going to wait until I have a need for it before powering it up - could always get better the next three weeks or on Raikou raid day, if that happens.
