Is one person in the raid guaranteed a shiny?
My last 10 raids, exactly 1 person in the group has gotten a Shiny.
On articuno day we did 6 raids. For 5 of them, we were a group of 9/10 people, and for one we were in a group of 20. Five accounts in our group of 9/10 got a shiny (one each of the smaller raids), and we saw a kid in the group of 20 get a shiny for that raid.
Then today I did 4 Lugia raids, and each raid exactly 1 person got a Shiny (three of them were 20 people, and one was 9 people).
It has just got me thinking that one person in the group is guaranteed a shiny possibly? Has anyone done small-man groups (of like 4 or 5 people) on Shiny-eligible pokemon recently that can deny this for sure (i.e. you've seen all 4/5 phones not have a shiny?). Maybe it was just luck, but I was also thinking it may explain a lot how so many people complain that it's so hard to get a shiny raid boss going 0 in 40 raids, while others get 3 out of 16 raids. If the former is always in a 20 person lobby, that's not unreasonably unlikely to go 40 raids without a shiny at a 1/20 chance. Likewise if the guy getting 3/16 is doing 5/6 man raids, he's also on track for 1/5 or 1/6 chances...
Just a thought. I know it's unlikely, but as I said my last 10 raids have been on-the-money for this...
Answers
No, it's random.
When Ho-oh was around with a shiny version I did atleast one raid with 15-20 people and none got a shiny. Then, on the last day, I did one with seven people and four of them got one.
When shiny Lugia was here the last time I did raids where none got a shiny one, but also one with like 10-11 players and three got it.
So yeah, it's random.
