Luvdisc catch calculation ... more random than normal?

Is it me, or is the Luvdisc catch calculation completely impossible to figure out for this Valentine's Day event?

So far:
-I haven't caught a SINGLE Luvdisc with an Excellent throw and a Curveball. Every single one - regardless ball I use, whether I use a Razzberry, of the CP or ring colour/level - has jumped out.
-More than half of the time when I use a Razzberry, the Luvdisc jumps out. This is true for any CP and ring colour.
-When I use an Ultraball, I have a 50/50ish catch rate (except when throwing an Excellent throw, which I have a 0% catch rate)
-When I use any ball, throw a Curveball and get a "Great" bonus, slightly less than half of the time it jumps out.
-When I use a Red Ball, throw a Curveball and get a "Nice" bonus or no bonus, I catch the Luvdisc about 75% of the time.
-When I start with an Ultraball, throw a Curveball, get a Great or Excellent bonus and the Luvdisc jumps out, the same Luvdisc gets caught by a Red ball, curveball and "Nice" or lower bonus, regardless of the CP or ring colour. Every time.
-When the first ball doesn't catch the Luvdisc, it will take 5+ to catch it and 3+ before it Flee's (if it is going to flee)

After caching about 100 Luvdisc over the last 18 hours, I've decided not to use any Razzberries, not to use anything but Red balls, and not to bother trying to get an Excellent bonus.