how common are shiny lugias?

A player from our community has 3 out of 8.

1/32 for me so far

I think very common, those I've raided with today caught 2.

1 in 13, but got it within the first 6.

1 of 9 so far.

1/35, got it from the fifth raid, 30 straight raids since and not a single one

I got one on my 9th lugia raid since they came out again. Over the weekend, my raid groups were averaging about 17 people per raid and we were averaging 1-2 shinies per raid, with a few raids where nobody got one. I know it's a small sample size, but I would guess the odds are probably about 1/16.

first raid, i raided with ~14 people no one got it
second raid, i raided with 12, i got it

could be possible no one announced it, i read a theory somewhere it is like the same % of getting shiny dratini last event (1/20 or something)

i'm 0 for 12. Of the twelve raids I went to there were probably an average of 10-12 players at each and I know of 4 that got shinies, so I would say it's roughly 1 in 30 or so.

They appear to be fairly common (like shiny dratini were during the event), but I'm 0 for 4. It appears lower level players have better odds.... both my kids (lvl 27, 30) got one from their first raid. I'm 40, and none of the 38+ players I often raid with got one.... yet. Theory: Niantic figures it has us hooked (yup), but the casuals need an incentive ;)

I was speaking to someone at a raid yesterday that he was in a group of 4 driving around this weekend and they hit about 12 raids. He said between the 4 of them they saw about 8 shinies. So, per his stats, 1 out of 6?

The raid I did yesterday was with a group of 10 and none of us got one though.