Almost mirror match: PvP Blastoise vs. Feraligatr
So, these two go head to head, with the same charged moves (assume Hydro Cannon and Ice Beam). Who wins? No idle speculation, please, solid data from simulations, calculations, or actually doing the fights. Keep everything else as even as possible.
The question for me is will it come down to Water Gun vs. Waterfall, or more Defense vs. more Attack? Or will these two somehow cancel out for a near-draw?
Blastoise's level has nothing to do with it. Blastoise has a better stat spread, resulting in a higher total stat product when CP limited. And stat product roughly translates into TDO.
Also Crunch doesn't win the match for Feraligatr and is actually worse to use than Hydro Cannon even against a single resistance to water. HC deals 41 damage for 40 energy to Blastoise, Crunch deals 43 damage for 45 energy (actual damage numbers in the fight).
"stat product roughly translates into TDO."
That's what concerns me. Roughly translates. I suspect there is an ideal stat balance, and I'm not sure that it's all equal stats (which is what stat product implies it would be). The CP formula introduces another equation of constraint, which complicates the problem, so it would probably require some calculus and using a LaGrange multiplier. Someday I'll get around to doing that calculation and post results. Until then, I prefer working from simulations or actual tests (like the ones below).
I've tested this matchup multiple times with a friend in the ultra league.
His Feraligatr at 2483cp, 15/14/15 IVs, with WF/HC/C.
My Blastoise at 2452cp, 14/15/15 IVs, with WG/HC/IB (shiny with sunglasses because that's also important, right?)
The result of those matches (I believe we've done it about about 8 times), has been Blastoise taking the win every single time. Of course, all things considered, this is a small sample size for testing and we haven't tried it out with TMing the Feraligatr to bite.
As housunkannatin mentioned, Blastoise has a much better stat spread, which gives it more bulk and allows it to outlast Feraligatr whose stats lean more towards attack.